Decision Making Techniques

Futuring and Innovation

CS875-1803C-01

Benjamin Arnold

Professor:  Rhonda Johnson

Most projects involve group decision making at some level. Most of the time, this is handled in an informal way through meetings or email correspondence. While an informal approach may work for some groups, others groups may benefit from a more structured approach to group decision making. The Delphi technique is a group decision-making method named after the Oracle of Delphi who was a mythical Greek fortune teller. The Delphi technique was developed in 1959 by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher, for the RAND Corporation. The Delphi technique uses anonymous input and structured flow of information between participants to protect against things like personal bias or a bandwagon effect of a specific idea to supplant other valid information (Helmer-Hirschberg, 1967). Experts in a given field are provided questionnaires that are designed to capture the expert’s information and opinions about an issue. The opinions are converted into an approach to address the issue. That approach is refined with continuous, anonymous feedback as the process continues.

Another group decision-making technique is Forced Ranking, which is also known as the Kepner-Tregoe Decision Matrix. Forced Ranking is a decision making technique that uses a decision matrix to force a ranking among possible alternative solutions. In this technique, several possible solutions for an issue are identified. Those solutions are then scored using a weighted value that is determined using a decision matrix. The decision matrix lists various criteria that can be used to determine important factors that are addressed by each of the proposed solutions. The factors are ranked in importance be being given a weight. Then each solution is given a rating as to how well it addresses each of the issue criteria. The weighted rating is the weight value times the rating value for each criterion (Welch, 2002). All weighted ratings are tallied and the solution with the highest culminate weighted score is determined to be the best solution for the issue. This technique also attempts to eliminate bias and possible bandwagon effects by separating the participants from the solution. The weighted ranking systems add objective metrics to possibly subjective criteria (Bens, 2005). Also, having the participants break downgrade different aspects of a solution instead of the solution as a whole provides a method where the solutions are looked at objectively and with more rigor by each participant.

A third approach is the OODA loop. OODA stands for observe, orient, decide, and act. It is a decision cycle developed by Col John Boyd for the United States Air Force to think about conflict situations. Boyd believed that since reality was always changing, any model of that reality would also have to constantly change. This model is like the other two examples in that it attempts to bring order to unknown variables. The first part of the OODA loop is to observe these changes. The concept is to be in a constant state of readiness to adapt to changes. The second stage is orientation, which is perhaps the most critical step in the process. Orientation means bringing the observations to bear and processing that information efficiently to prepare to decide (Enck, 2012). Boyd suggested that having a robust background of several disciplines would be an advantage at this stage. In a group setting, this is where the group would call on the individual expertise represented in the group to successfully process the information that was observed. The last two stages are relatively straightforward. Decide on a course of action and then act on it. Three key takeaway from these stages is to commit to the decision, complete the action, and ensure that any feedback information is retained when restarting the loop. A unique factor about implementing an OODA Loop is that it is ineffective if not used constantly. A team cannot start up an OODA Loop process for a single situation and then stop after the first action. The OODA Loop process works best when it is more a constant state the team is in and is always being practiced. After every action, observation continues.

References

Helmer-Hirschberg, Olaf,Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND

Corporation, P-3558, 1967. As of July 18, 2018:https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3558.html

David A. Welch, Decisions, Decisions - The art of effective decision making. Prometheus Books, 2002 (ISBN 1-57392-934-4)

Ingrid Bens, Facilitating with Ease - Core skills for facilitators, team leaders and members, managers,

 consultants and trainers. Jossey-Bass, 2005 (ISBN 0-7879-7729-2)

Enck, R. E. (2012). The OODA Loop. Home Health Care Management & Practice, 24(3), 123-124.

doi:10.1177/1084822312439314